Merge PR #110: improve ETA accuracy with rho-weighted time estimation

Resolve merge conflict by keeping both the LED guard
(dw_led_playing_effect check) and the new ETA variables.
Rename `completed` to `coords_done` to avoid shadowing the
boolean return semantics. Fix TypeScript type for remaining_time
to accept null during the warmup period.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 4.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

frontend/src/components/NowPlayingBar.tsx

@@ -39,7 +39,7 @@ interface PlaybackStatus {
   progress: {
     current: number
     total: number
-    remaining_time: number
+    remaining_time: number | null
     elapsed_time: number
     percentage: number
     last_completed_time?: {

modules/core/pattern_manager.py

@@ -1182,6 +1182,17 @@ async def _execute_pattern_internal(file_path):
         logger.warning("Not enough coordinates for interpolation")
         return False
 
+    # Pre-calculate rho-based weights for more accurate time estimation
+    # Moves near center (low rho) are slower than perimeter moves due to
+    # polar geometry - less linear distance per theta change at low rho
+    def calc_move_weight(rho):
+        # Weight inversely proportional to rho, with floor to avoid extreme values
+        # At rho=0: weight≈6.7, at rho=0.5: weight≈1.5, at rho=1.0: weight≈0.87
+        return 1.0 / (rho + 0.15)
+
+    coord_weights = [calc_move_weight(rho) for _, rho in coordinates]
+    total_weight = sum(coord_weights)
+
     # Determine if this is a clearing pattern
     is_clear_file = is_clear_pattern(file_path)
 
@@ -1212,6 +1223,8 @@ async def _execute_pattern_internal(file_path):
 
     start_time = time.time()
     total_pause_time = 0  # Track total time spent paused (manual + scheduled)
+    completed_weight = 0.0  # Track rho-weighted progress
+    smoothed_rate = None  # For exponential smoothing of time-per-unit-weight rate
     if state.led_controller and state.dw_led_playing_effect:
         logger.info(f"Setting LED to playing effect: {state.dw_led_playing_effect}")
         await state.led_controller.effect_playing_async(state.dw_led_playing_effect)
@@ -1351,8 +1364,33 @@ async def _execute_pattern_internal(file_path):
             # Update progress for all coordinates including the first one
             pbar.update(1)
             elapsed_time = time.time() - start_time
-            estimated_remaining_time = (total_coordinates - (i + 1)) / pbar.format_dict['rate'] if pbar.format_dict['rate'] and total_coordinates else 0
-            state.execution_progress = (i + 1, total_coordinates, estimated_remaining_time, elapsed_time)
+            coords_done = i + 1
+
+            # Track rho-weighted progress for accurate time estimation
+            completed_weight += coord_weights[i]
+            remaining_weight = total_weight - completed_weight
+
+            # Calculate actual execution time (excluding pauses)
+            active_time = elapsed_time - total_pause_time
+
+            # Need minimum samples for stable estimate (at least 100 coords and 10 seconds)
+            if coords_done >= 100 and active_time > 10:
+                # Rate is time per unit weight (accounts for slower moves near center)
+                current_rate = active_time / completed_weight
+
+                # Smooth the RATE for stability
+                if smoothed_rate is not None:
+                    alpha = 0.02  # Very smooth - 2% new, 98% old
+                    smoothed_rate = alpha * current_rate + (1 - alpha) * smoothed_rate
+                else:
+                    smoothed_rate = current_rate
+
+                # Remaining time based on weighted remaining work
+                estimated_remaining_time = smoothed_rate * remaining_weight
+            else:
+                estimated_remaining_time = None
+
+            state.execution_progress = (coords_done, total_coordinates, estimated_remaining_time, elapsed_time)
 
             # Add a small delay to allow other async operations
             await asyncio.sleep(0.001)